Analysing and understanding the transmission and evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is mandatory to be able to design the best social and medical policies, foresee their outcomes and deal with all the subsequent socio-economic effects. We address this important problem from a computational and machine learning perspective. More specifically, we want to statistically estimate all the relevant parameters for the new coronavirus COVID-19, such as the reproduction number, fatality rate or length of infectiousness period, based on Romanian patients, as well as be able to predict future outcomes. This endeavor is important, since it is well known that these factors vary across the globe, and might be dependent on many causes, including social, medical, age and genetic factors. We use a recently published improved version of SEIR, which is the classic, established model for infectious diseases. We want to infer all the parameters of the model, which govern the evolution of the pandemic in Romania, based on the only reliable, true measurement, which is the number of deaths. Once the model parameters are estimated, we are able to predict all the other relevant measures, such as the number of exposed and infectious people. To this end, we propose a self-supervised approach to train a deep convolutional network to guess the correct set of Modified-SEIR model parameters, given the observed number of daily fatalities. Then, we refine the solution with a stochastic coordinate descent approach. We compare our deep learning optimization scheme with the classic grid search approach and show great improvement in both computational time and prediction accuracy. We find an optimistic result in the case fatality rate for Romania which may be around 0.3% and we also demonstrate that our model is able to correctly predict the number of daily fatalities for up to three weeks in the future.

The metaheuristic optimization technique attained more awareness for handling complex optimization problems. Over the last few years, numerous optimization techniques have been developed that are inspired by natural phenomena. Recently, the propagation of the new COVID-19 implied a burden on the public health system to suffer several deaths. Vaccination, masks, and social distancing are the major steps taken to minimize the spread of the deadly COVID-19 virus. Considering the social distance to combat the coronavirus epidemic, a novel bio-inspired metaheuristic optimization model is proposed in this work, and it is termed as Social Distancing Induced Coronavirus Optimization Algorithm (COVO). The pace of propagation of the coronavirus can indeed be slowed by maintaining social distance. Thirteen benchmark functions are used to evaluate the COVO performance for discrete, continuous, and complex problems, and the COVO model performance is compared with other well-known optimization algorithms. The main motive of COVO optimization is to obtain a global solution to various applications by solving complex problems with faster convergence. At last, the validated results depict that the proposed COVO optimization has a reasonable and acceptable performance.

Pandemics involve the high transmission of a disease that impacts global and local health and economic patterns. The impact of a pandemic can be minimized by enforcing certain restrictions on a community. However, while minimizing infection and death rates, these restrictions can also lead to economic crises. Epidemiological models help propose pandemic control strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, curfews, and lockdowns, reducing the economic impact of these restrictions. However, designing manual control strategies while considering disease spread and economic status is non-trivial. Optimal strategies can be designed through multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) models, which demonstrate how restrictions can be used to optimize the outcome of a pandemic. In this research, we utilized an epidemiological Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, Deceased (SEIRD) model: a compartmental model for virtually simulating a pandemic day by day. We combined the SEIRD model with a deep double recurrent Q-network to train a reinforcement learning agent to enforce the optimal restriction on the SEIRD simulation based on a reward function. We tested two agents with unique reward functions and pandemic goals to obtain two strategies. The first agent placed long lockdowns to reduce the initial spread of the disease, followed by cyclical and shorter lockdowns to mitigate the resurgence of the disease. The second agent provided similar infection rates but an improved economy by implementing a 10-day lockdown and 20-day no-restriction cycle. This use of reinforcement learning and epidemiological modeling allowed for both economic and infection mitigation in multiple pandemic scenarios.

We modelled emergence and spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia between December 2021 and June 2022. This pandemic stage exhibited a diverse epidemiological profile with emergence of co-circulating sub-lineages of Omicron, further complicated by differences in social distancing behaviour which varied over time. Our study delineated distinct phases of the Omicron-associated pandemic stage, and retrospectively quantified the adoption of social distancing measures, fluctuating over different time periods in response to the observable incidence dynamics. We also modelled the corresponding disease burden, in terms of hospitalisations, intensive care unit occupancy, and mortality. Supported by good agreement between simulated and actual health data, our study revealed that the nonlinear dynamics observed in the daily incidence and disease burden were determined not only by introduction of sub-lineages of Omicron, but also by the fluctuating adoption of social distancing measures. Our high-resolution model can be used in design and evaluation of public health interventions during future crises.

In the current times, the fear and danger of COVID-19 virus still stands large. Manual monitoring of social distancing norms is impractical with a large population moving about and with insufficient task force and resources to administer them. There is a need for a lightweight, robust and 24X7 video-monitoring system that automates this process. This paper proposes a comprehensive and effective solution to perform person detection, social distancing violation detection, face detection and face mask classification using object detection, clustering and Convolution Neural Network (CNN) based binary classifier. For this, YOLOv3, Density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), Dual Shot Face Detector (DSFD) and MobileNetV2 based binary classifier have been employed on surveillance video datasets. This paper also provides a comparative study of different face detection and face mask classification models. Finally, a video dataset labelling method is proposed along with the labelled video dataset to compensate for the lack of dataset in the community and is used for evaluation of the system. The system performance is evaluated in terms of accuracy, F1 score as well as the prediction time, which has to be low for practical applicability. The system performs with an accuracy of 91.2% and F1 score of 90.79% on the labelled video dataset and has an average prediction time of 7.12 seconds for 78 frames of a video.

The COVID-19 pandemic created enormous public health and socioeconomic challenges. The health effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were often contrasted with significant social and economic costs. We describe a general framework aimed to derive adaptive cost-effective interventions, adequate for both recent and emerging pandemic threats. We also quantify the net health benefits and propose a reinforcement learning approach to optimise adaptive NPIs. The approach utilises an agent-based model simulating pandemic responses in Australia, and accounts for a heterogeneous population with variable levels of compliance fluctuating over time and across individuals. Our analysis shows that a significant net health benefit may be attained by adaptive NPIs formed by partial social distancing measures, coupled with moderate levels of the society's willingness to pay for health gains (health losses averted). We demonstrate that a socially acceptable balance between health effects and incurred economic costs is achievable over a long term, despite possible early setbacks.

Nowadays we are experiencing a way of life that never existed before. The pandemic has sharply changed our habits, customs, and behavior. In addition, a lot of work was suddenly requested for city managers challenging them to develop strategies to try stopping the pandemic progression. Urban environments must be dynamic and managers need fast decisions when working on crisis situations. In this paper we present LODUS, a framework able to simulate urban environments on a multi-level approach, combining macro and micro simulation information in order to provide accurate information about population dynamics. Furthermore, the framework LODUS is a powerful tool when performing an urban viability study, since the simulation results are able to highlight and predict attention points prior to an urban environment to be built.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, policy makers at the Greater London Authority, the regional governance body of London, UK, are reliant upon prompt and accurate data sources. Large well-defined heterogeneous compositions of activity throughout the city are sometimes difficult to acquire, yet are a necessity in order to learn 'busyness' and consequently make safe policy decisions. One component of our project within this space is to utilise existing infrastructure to estimate social distancing adherence by the general public. Our method enables near immediate sampling and contextualisation of activity and physical distancing on the streets of London via live traffic camera feeds. We introduce a framework for inspecting and improving upon existing methods, whilst also describing its active deployment on over 900 real-time feeds.

Government organizations can implement computer vision in smart cities to maintain social distancing and avoid stampedes and other disasters in crowded areas. As the global population continues to grow at an alarming rate, crowd management becomes an increasingly challenging task. The global population is reportedly projected to reach 8 billion in 2025. Global trends also indicate that the population in urban areas has been growing steadily over several years. This suggests crowd management can be even more difficult in urban areas.

I started out wanting to learn AI Object Detection in Computer Vision... Now even though I have a masters degree in electronic engineering (M.Eng). It was still challenging for me to figure out. I had a lot of questions like... If Ubuntu, what version 16.04, 18.04, What kernel do I need? If I am training, what format does my dataset need to be in?